Projections: Canes heavy favorites heading into playoffs

The Cartersville Purple Hurricanes are a clear favorite to once again make a deep playoff run and are favored to repeat as state champions in over 67 percent of all state playoff simulations according to the Maxwell Playoff Projections produced by Loren Maxwell of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The Maxwell ratings utilize a metric to simulate the state playoffs one million times to determine projected odds. The ratings reflect each team’s strength and the simulations consider the impact of the season’s game results, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

The Canes are also a unanimously No. 1 ranked team in Class AAAA in each of the six major polls and ratings recognized in Georgia.

Of course everyone knows the games are not played on paper or in computer simulations, so the Canes will defend their state title and their current 25-game win streak with a clear target on their backs.

Cartersville (10-0) begins defense of their 2015 Class AAAA state title this Friday at Weinman Stadium when they host Chestatee (4-6). The Canes are a No. 1 seed from Region 5-AAAA. Chestatee is a No. 4 seed from Region 7-AAAA.

A victory by the Canes would result in a second round home game November 18 against the winner of the Northside-Columbus at Burke County first round pairing.

Meanwhile, another power rating formula — CalPreps.com — also has Cartersville as a huge favorite heading into the state playoffs.

CalPrep.com projections for Class AAAA first round: (83.5 percent winner accuracy in 2016)

Blessed Trinity 31, Chapel Hill 14 Burke County 35, Northside-Columbus 19

Cairo 42, Baldwin 0 Cartersville 62, Chestatee 0 Carver 42, Cross Creek 7 Oconee County 31, Northwest Whitfield 27 Mary Persons 35, North Clayton 0

Jefferson 40, Pickens 14 Ridgeland 34, St. Pius X 14

Sandy Creek 28, Marist 21 Spalding 28, Eastside 24 Stephens County 35, Heritage-Catoosa 17 Thomson 38, Americus-Sumter 13 Troup County 38, West Hall 19

West Laurens 28, Luella 7 Woodward Academy 35, Upson-Lee 7

According to the Maxwell playoff projections, Cartersville’s greatest challenge will come from Region 3-AAAA champion, Thomson, and Woodward Academy, winner of Region 4-AAAA. The ratings give Thomson a 20.1 percent chance of winning the state title and give Woodward Academy a 5.3 percent shot at the championship.

Cartersville and Woodward Academy are in the same quartile of the Class AAAA bracket and would meet Thanksgiving weekend if both teams win their first two playoff games. Since both teams are No. 1 seeds, a coin toss would determine the site of that game if it occurs. Thomson is on the opposite half of the bracket.

The state title favorites according to the Maxwell playoff projections: (% of state title wins in one million state playoff projections) Class A (private): Eagle’s Landing Christian, 50.7 percent Class A (public): Macon County, 54.2 percent Class AA: Benedictine, 48.2 percent Class AAA: Greater Atlanta Christian, 47.6 percent Class AAAA: Cartersville, 67.4 percent Class AAAAA: Stockbridge, 45.2 percent Class AAAAAA: Valdosta, 38.1 percent Class AAAAAAA: Grayson, 63.6 percent

Schedule for all classifications beginning Friday:

Class AAAAAAA

R8 #3 Archer at R6 #2 Peachtree Ridge

R2 #4 Pebblebrook at R4 #1 Roswell

R1 #3 Tift County at R3 #2 North Cobb

R7 #4 Central Gwinnett at R5 #1 Lambert

R6 #3 North Gwinnett at R8 #2 South Gwinnett

R4 #4 Etowah at R2 #1 Westlake

R3 #3 Hillgrove at R1 #2 Lowndes

R5 #4 Milton at R7 #1 Norcross

R4 #3 Woodstock at R2 #2 East Coweta

R6 #4 Mountain View at R8 #1 Grayson

R5 #3 West Forsyth at R7 #2 Brookwood

R3 #4 North Paulding at R1 #1 Colquitt County

R2 #3 Wheeler at R4 #2 Cherokee

R8 #4 Newton at R6 #1 Mill Creek

R7 #3 Parkview at R5 #2 South Forsyth

At Large Lassiter at R3 #1 McEachern

Class AAAAAA

R8 #3 Gainesville at R6 #2 Harrison

R2 #4 Bradwell Institute at R4 #1 Tucker

R1 #3 Lee County at R3 #2 Evans

R7 #4 Cambridge at R5 #1 Mays

R6 #3 Allatoona at R8 #2 Lanier

R4 #4 Jonesboro at R2 #1 Glynn Academy

R3 #3 Grovetown at R1 #2 Northside-Warner Robins

R5 #4 Langston Hughes at R7 #1 Johns Creek

R4 #3 Stephenson at R2 #2 Effingham County

R6 #4 Sequoyah at R8 #1 Dacula

R5 #3 Northgate at R7 #2 Centennial

R3 #4 Lakeside-Evans at R1 #1 Valdosta

R2 #3 Richmond Hill at R4 #2 Lovejoy

R8 #4 Winder-Barrow at R6 #1 Dalton

R7 #3 Alpharetta at R5 #2 Alexander

R1 #4 Coffee at R3 #1 Heritage-Conyers

Class AAAAA

R8 #3 Clarke Central at R6 #2 Carver-Atlanta

R2 #4 South Effingham at R4 #1 Stockbridge

R1 #3 Warner Robins at R3 #2 Griffin

R7 #4 Villa Rica at R5 #1 Arabia Mountain

R6 #3 Riverwood at R8 #2 Loganville

R4 #4 Ola at R2 #1 Ware County

R3 #3 Whitewater at R1 #2 Bainbridge

R5 #4 Miller Grove at R7 #1 Rome

R4 #3 Jones County at R2 #2 Wayne County

R6 #4 North Springs at R8 #1 Buford

R5 #3 Lithonia at R7 #2 Carrollton

R3 #4 Riverdale at R1 #1 Thomas County Central

R2 #3 New Hampstead at R4 #2 Woodland-Stockbridge

R8 #4 Walnut Grove at R6 #1 Grady

R7 #3 Kell at R5 #2 Southwest DeKalb

R1 #4 Veterans at R3 #1 Starr’s Mill

Class AAAA

R8 #3 Oconee County at R6 #2 Northwest-Whitfield

R2 #4 Upson Lee at R4 #1 Woodward Academy

R1 #3 Northside-Columbus at R3 #2 Burke County

R7 #4 Chestatee at R5 #1 Cartersville

R6 #3 Heritage-Catoosa at R8 #2 Stephens County

R4 #4 North Clayton at R2 #1 Mary Persons

R3 #3 Cross Creek at R1 #2 Carver-Columbus

R5 #4 Chapel Hill at R7 #1 Blessed Trinity

R4 #3 Luella at R2 #2 West Laurens

R6 #4 Pickens at R8 #1 Jefferson

R5 #3 Sandy Creek at R7 #2 Marist

R3 #4 Baldwin at R1 #1 Cairo

R2 #3 Spalding at R4 #2 Eastside

R8 #4 St. Pius at R6 #1 Ridgeland

R7 #3 West Hall at R5 #2 Troup

R1 #4 Americus-Sumter at R3 #1 Thomson

Class AAA

R8 #3 Jackson at R6 #2 Ringgold

R2 #4 Tattnall County at R4 #1 Peach County

R1 #3 Cooks at R3 #2 Savannah

R7 #4 North Hall at R5 #1 Westminster

R6 #3 Sonoraville at R8 #2 Franklin County

R4 #4 Pike County at R2 #1 Liberty County

R3 #3 Southeast Bulloch at R1 #2 Worth County

R5 #4 Pace Academy at R7 #1 Greater Atlanta Christian

R4 #3 Westside-Macon at R2 #2 Pierce County

R6 #4 Murray County at R8 #1 Morgan County

R5 #3 Lovett at R7 #2 Dawson County

R3 #4 Islands at R1 #1 Crisp County

R2 #3 Brantley County at R4 #2 Jackson

R8 #4 Monroe Area at R6 #1 Calhoun

R7 #3 Union County at R5 #2 Cedar Grove

R1 #4 Dougherty at R3 #1 Jenkins

Class AA

R8 #3 Elbert County at R6 #2 Douglass

R2 #4 Toombs County at R4 #1 Screven County

R1 #3 Brooks County at R3 #2 Southwest

R7 #4 Model at R5 #1 Callaway

R6 #3 K.I.P.P. Atlanta at R8 #2 Banks County

R4 #4 Josey at R2 #1 Benedictine

R3 #3 Dodge County at R1 #2 Thomasville

R5 #4 Spencer at R7 #1 Pepperell

R4 #3 Laney at R2 #2 Vidalia

R6 #4 Washington Atlanta at R8 #1 Rabun County

R5 #3 Heard County at R7 #2 Rockmart

R3 #4 Dublin at R1 #1 Fitzgerald

R2 #3 Swainsboro at R4 #2 Jefferson County

R8 #4 Monticello at R6 #1 Hapeville Charter

R7 #3 Chattooga at R5 #2 Lamar County

R1 #4 Berrien at R3 #1 Washington County

Class A (public)

Marion Co. at Twiggs Co.

Manchester bye

Turner Co. at Terrell Co.

Macon Co. bye

Irwin Co. at Dooly Co.

Mount Zion bye

Bowdon at Miller Co.

Emanuel Co. Institute bye

Trion at Taylor Co.

Commerce bye

Randolph-Clay at Mitchell Co.

Clinch Co. bye

Washington-Wilkes at Lincoln Co.

McIntosh Co. Academy bye

Wheeler Co. at Greene Co.

Pelham bye

Class A (private)

Brookstone at Pinecrest Academy

Wesleyan bye

First Presbyterian at Aquinas

Eagle's Landing Christian bye

Holy Innocents' at Stratford Acad.

Tattnall Square bye

Hebron Christian at Sav. Christian

Calvary Day bye

Walker at Darlington

Landmark Christian bye

Mount Pisgah at Athens Christian

Prince Avenue Christian bye

Sav. Country Day at Athens Acad.

Mount Paran Christian bye

Mt. Vernon at George Walton

Fellowship Christian bye